People haven't noticed yet, but Eric Gordon has quietly molded himself into the best under-25 shooting guard in basketball.
Surprised? Go on, name a better one.
(Waiting...)
Exactly.
A poor shooting start and a wrist injury that cost him 26 games in the second half of last season helped Gordon fly under the radar in 2011, but no longer. Barring major injury, Gordon is about to permanently put himself on the NBA map.
In his third year in the league, he climbed into the top 10 in the NBA in scoring before sitting out a significant chunk of time with that bad wrist. Even so, Gordon still wound up averaging a heady 22.3 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
Gordon's offensive game has blossomed as his career has progressed. He's already one of the toughest covers in the NBA. Defenders are always on their heels trying to contain his combination of powerful drives to the rim and deadly outside shooting.
Gordon came into the league already known for his ability to knock down the outside shot. After a terrible slump to start the year, Gordon shot just a shade under 42 percent from three-point range from December 1 on, even despite nursing that injured wrist on his shooting hand. He boasted a robust 56.6 percent True Shooting percentage (that is, shooting percentage adjusted for three-pointers and free throws) and knocked down nearly 83 percent of his freebies. Gordon's shooting was boosted by the polishing of his mid-range jumper. He increased his shooting percentage on shots 10-15 feet from the rim from 20 percent to nearly 39 percent between 2010 and 2011.
Gordon's perimeter shot-making abilities have to be respected, but opponents who show it too much respect are apt to get burned on Gordon's similarly effective forays to the basket. Last season, Gordon got to the rim and converted shots there at a higher rate than his previous two NBA seasons. In addition to that, Gordon did it more on his own, being assisted on less than 45 percent of his makes at the rim as opposed to more than 55 percent of the time in his first two seasons. Gordon also got himself to the free-throw line at a brisk clip, averaging 6.2 attempts per game (more than Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, and Monta Ellis, among others).
The biggest improvement in Gordon's offensive game last season was his ball-handling skills. Gordon used to be more of a catch-and-shoot player, but last year he handled the ball much more frequently, registering a career-high usage rate. His ability to break down defenders one-on-one led to career highs in shot attempts at the rim and free-throw attempts. Gordon's underrated strength and athleticism allowed him to finish strong around the basket, even with contact. Gordon proved to be a smart decision-maker with the basketball too, averaging a career best 4.4 assists per game (nearly 50 percent better than his previous career high), and turning the ball over at a career-low rate. The side pick-and-roll between Gordon and high-flying teammate Blake Griffin became a staple of the Clippers' offensive attack, one that gave opposing defenses fits trying to guard against it.
One of the most telling signs of Gordon's impending ascendance into the NBA shooting guard stratosphere is his approach to the game. The kid plays hard. All the time. He's aggressive on offense and fearless as a defender. Despite his short stature, Gordon's incredible strength hinders bigger guards trying to post him up, and his lengthy wingspan and quick-jumping ability lets him contest the jumpers of lankier guards. His length and quickness also lets him get into the passing lanes, leading the way to 1.3 steals per game last season. He acquitted himself well in his match-ups against the NBA's other top shooting guards in 2011, holding the combo of Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobli, Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis, Brandon Roy, and Kevin Martin to under 40 percent from the field combined (111-for-278), and under 28 percent from three-point range combined (22-for-79).
The only chink in the armor for Gordon is his dismal rebounding. A guy with his strength and athleticism should be pulling down at least a modest number of boards every game. In reality though, out of the top 120 players in PER last season, the only one with a worse total rebounding rate than Gordon was tiny little Earl Boykins.
The most important aspect to Gordon as an impact player is that he steps up when the game is on the line. Gordon was 11th in the NBA in clutch scoring (clutch time defined by 82games.com as the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter of overtime with neither team ahead by more than 5 points), dropping in over 38 points per 48 minutes. His field goal percentage in the clutch rose over 10 percentage points to 55.6 percent, the best in the NBA among guards with at least 100 crunch-time minutes played. His three-point and free-throw percentages rose sharply as well, to 53.3 and 93.3 percent respectively. Gordon drew fouls at a higher rate and even increased his rebounding and assist rates. The bottom line is that you want the ball in Eric Gordon's hands in the waning minutes of a tight game. Here are his clutch stats lined up side by side with the NBA's consensus kings of clutch, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki (per 82games.com):
Bryant: 49.8 points/48 mins, 7.6 assists/48 mins, 40.2 percent FG, 35.1 percent 3FG, 87 percent FT
Nowitzki: 41.4 points/48 mins, 5.6 assists/48 mins, 45.8 percent FG, 12.5 percent 3FG, 89 percent FT
Gordon: 38.4 points/48 mins, 7.2 assists/48 mins, 55.6 percent FG, 53.3 percent 3FG, 93 percent FT
Now, I'm not saying definitively that I'd take Gordon over those other two in the clutch at this stage in their careers, but looking at those numbers makes you realize just how money Gordon was last year in crunch-time.
All in all, I think Gordon is just scratching the surface of his astronomic potential. He's a supremely gifted scorer with a well-rounded and efficient offensive game, a good ball-handler, a willing passer, and a tenacious defender to boot.
And oh, by the way, he's still just 22 years old.
Going into next season, I'd take him as my starting shooting guard over anyone in the NBA not named Kobe or Dwyane. And if I had to choose one two-guard for the next 10 years, Gordon is my guy. I see him topping 25 points a game with ease for the next several seasons, with multiple All-Star selections and even an All-NBA nod or two.
Ladies and gentlemen, Eric Gordon is about to bust out in a big way onto the national basketball scene.
Don't say I didn't warn you.
